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Friday analysis from Bahrain
Posted Friday, 24th of April 2009, filed under Analysis
Let's start with the top 3 times from each session...
Session 1
| 1. HAMILTON | McLaren | 1m33.647s |
| 2. HEIDFELD | BMW | 1m33.907s |
| 3. KUBICA | BMW | 1m33.938s |
Session 2
| 1. ROSBERG | Williams | 1m33.339s |
| 2. ALONSO | Renault | 1m33.530s |
| 3. TRULLI | Toyota | 1m33.616s |
The two sessions had very little parity, but a deeper look into the lap times in Free Practice 2 reveals a few trends.
Group 1: BrawnGP, Toyota, Red Bull
Of the three favorites going into this weekend, only Toyota (along with BMW and Ferrari) tested here during the winter. Any advantage they may have received from doing that hasn't made itself obvious at this stage of the weekend, here is how their times compared.
| Button 25 1:33.694 26 1:34.087 27 1:33.768 28 1:34.355 29 1:34.546 30 1:34.328 31 1:34.366 32 1:34.314 33 1:40.951 34 1:34.099 | Trulli 17 1:34.579 18 1:34.783 19 1:35.133 20 1:40.980 21 1:34.632 22 1:34.536 23 1:35.058 24 1:34.845 25 1:34.828 26 1:35.179 | Webber 23 1:33.945 24 1:33.676 25 1:34.232 26 1:34.250 27 1:34.468 28 1:35.145 29 1:34.689 30 1:34.869 31 1:35.040 |
The three teams are only separated by a couple of tenths but Brawn still appear to have the measure of these two over several laps.
Fuel corrected they were the quickest cars last weekend but played it too conservative which allowed Red Bull to get out and control the race. Of course they couldn't have predicted such a volume of rain to fall from the heavens but it's going to be interesting to see how much longer Brawn GP continue their conservative approach in qualifying with teams like Renault and McLaren starting to come on. We know Alonso fancies a light fuel load and with KERS equipped he would be a handful in the race. The front row is absolutely vital for these three teams, it's going to be a fascinating Q3 tomorrow afternoon.
Group 2: Everyone else!
The midfield is an enormous jumble of cars right now, with teams bringing new parts and running comparison programs it's very hard to tell where everyone stands. Right now I'd stick with Alonso, Hamilton, Rosberg and a Ferrari along with the six from the leading trio to make it into Q3.
BMW were near the top with Lewis in session 1 but didn't look particularly threatening during long runs in the afternoon. Both drivers times started in the high 34's, but were a second slower by the end of their stints.
| Kubica 21 1:34.910 22 1:34.605 23 1:34.802 24 1:35.054 25 1:35.218 26 1:35.004 27 1:35.207 28 1:38.286 29 1:35.825 30 1:36.057 | Heidfeld 24 1:34.790 25 1:34.849 26 1:43.980 27 1:35.145 28 1:38.590 29 1:35.539 30 1:35.591 31 1:35.875 32 1:38.809 |
Ferrari and McLaren showed no steep drop off in performance. Massa's 11 lap stint is worth taking note of, his first lap was a 1:34.659 and capped the run off with a 1:34.733.
Hamilton made the most of McLaren's new developments, he didn't do a run as long as Felipe's, instead he ran a program more similar to Raikkonen's of shorter 7 lap stints. One of which was run at Red Bull pace in the 34.3's. Kovalainen ran a program more focused on longer runs but was half a second off Massa's times. It's a hard one to call for sure.
| Hamilton 18 1:34.367 19 1:34.432 20 1:41.217 21 1:34.157 22 1:34.272 23 1:35.487 24 1:37.062 | Raikkonen 15 1:35.067 16 1:34.873 17 1:35.191 18 1:35.591 19 1:35.114 20 1:38.852 | Massa 17 1:34.659 18 1:34.733 19 1:34.761 20 1:34.953 21 1:35.138 22 1:34.978 23 1:34.944 24 1:35.237 25 1:38.328 26 1:43.067 27 1:35.018 28 1:34.733 |
Nico Rosberg set the fastest lap time but ran in the high 35's on his runs. I'm afraid that Williams time at the front might already be coming to an end, but Nico likes it around this track and will make it into Q3 I believe.
Renault looked awful early in the session, lapping in 36's along with the STR's. Pat Symmonds told BBC Radio that their Friday programme featured a much larger fuel load than normal so that's worth taking into account, but I think that like Williams, or more accurately, like Rosberg, Alonso will make it through to Q3 and then get in everyone's way in the race.
One final point, I don't usually talk about them but Force India has brought a new floor and interim diffuser to this track and it's paying dividends for them. Sutil had a several lap stint where put in 35 flats and both drivers were featuring in the top 10 at points throughout the session.
As always, the rest of the timing information can be accessed through the Timing Application.
My Prediction
1. BrawnGP
2. Toyota
3. Red Bull
4. McLaren
5. Ferrari
6. Williams
7. BMW
8. Renault
9. Force India
10. STR
...then you are an oasis in a desert.
Posted Friday, 24th of April, filed under Previews
Within just 7 days Formula One has crossed half a world away from the rivers and brooks of China, to the dunes and palms in the middle eastern kingdom of Bahrain. It's likely this swing of extremes will not only juxtapose global climate conditions but also the Formula One form book.
Nico Rosberg is on record saying China was an anomaly, not just in the wet but throughout the entire cold and dreary weekend. Getting Bridgestones tricky Super Soft tyres to work took priority over Diffusers and KERS and what have you.
At center of all this was Red Bull, featured in all its beauty just a few inches to the left of this sentence and Messr's Vettel der Regenmeister and Mark der Tenderlegs, whom captained their vessels superbly in a dominant one two finish. Primitive diffuser and all! It was the teams first victory since it's genesis as Stewart GP in an also rain affected race back in 1999 at the 'Ring.
What should we come to expect at Bahrain though? It's an excellent question and I suspect we'll have a definitive answer, finally, in 72 hours time. After the craziness of Melbourne, Sepang and Shanghai, the dry heat and lusterless characteristics typical of this race will be welcomed with open arms and eager minds. We're all dying to have the pecking order of this 2009 season determined but the reality is this years analogical "grid" is as a dynamic, living, breathing always shifting thing as we've ever seen.
Personally I feel the order is something like Brawn, Toyota, Red Bull, McLaren and Williams, nevertheless, I will, as always, endeavor to bring you the best analysis of Today's practice sessions so tune back in tonight and check that out.
One of the most interesting developments to follow will be the relative pace of Ferrari, McLaren, BMW and Renault. Last years pace setters are likely to now be battling to knock each other in the second session of qualifying, and with STR starting to see some Red Bull development trickle down, Formula One's second tier is about to get very cramped.
Timetable
Friday Practice 2 - 14:00 + timing info
Saturday Practice - 11:00 + timing info
Qualifying - 14:00 + timing info
Race - 15:00 + timing info
Bahrain Circuit Map
Chinese Grandprix.
Posted Friday, 17th of April 2009, filed under Preview
Update
Just a quick update to give a break down of Fridays Free Practice, I apologize for no full analysis this weekend, but I promise to bring you full coverage of next weekends race in Bahrain. Anyway, once more into the breach...
Brawn and Red Bull are looking the best. Brawn capable of dips into 35 while running low 36, Red Bull are more in the mid 36 range. Rosberg for Williams did very long runs and had the car in the high 36 range even towards the end of runs so they look better on the tyres here than in Melbourne. Nakajima is really falling behind Nico.
Toyota had a perculiar day, Trulli looked locked into the mid 36 range but then did two long runs that were slower than the Williams. They might just be very confident and had the car brimmed with fuel, watch out for them in the race.
McLaren has made improvement, Ferrari has dropped right back, so now they're about even. In the race I'd give the nod to McLaren given they have kept their KERS system. Low to mid 37's is where their times are right now. Next is BMW right? Nope. Alonso? Nope. It's the one and only Sebastien Bourdais. New updates that bring the STR closer to its Red Bull cousin has propelled the Frenchman into the middle pack, he was running mid 37's.
Quick Nick is in the high 37's, Kubica has to be disgusted with KERS and BMW, his lap times were grounded in the 39's, slower than the Renaults and Force India. BMW are the one team that hold a bit back on Friday so they should improve but it's a long way from "Vettel cost us a win" quotes from Australia.
My Pace Prediction
- Brawn GP
- Toyota
- Red Bull
- Williams
- McLaren
- Ferrari
- BMW
- STR
- Renault
- Force India
/end update
It's been a busy week so no preview this week. Session times are up for Free Practice 1 and 2, they can be accessed through the timing app.
Timetable
| Friday Practice 1 | 10:00 - 11:30 | +all times |
| Friday Practice 2 | 14:00 - 15:30 | +all times |
| Saturday Practice | 11:00 - 12:00 | +all times |
| Qualifying | 14:00 - 15:00 | +all times |
| Race | 15:00 | +all times |
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Smokescreen, Practice Analysis from Sepang.
Posted Friday, 3rd of March 2009, filed under Analysis
You can access Sepang practice times through the Timing link in the menu.
Ferrari
An interesting day in Malaysia, one which we saw a contrast of fortunes for Ferrari whom could have been believed to have had their chances go up on smoke after an apparent KERS malfunction in P1, but the team recovered to post very competitive times in the second session. Not only did top the time sheet, looking at their pace over the long runs it's quite clear that the F60 is well suited to the sweeping curves of the Sepang International Circuit.
Raikkonen's fastest lap was a 1m35.707, which he set on the 12th lap of a mega 15 lap stint which saw the Fin steadily decrease his lap time throughout the stint. An excellent sign, as it shows the car is using the tyres quite nicely.
Felipe Massa's quickest circuit was on lap 10 of 13, a marginally slower 1m35.832. It's a worrying sign for Brawn and Red Bull that Ferrari have been able to focus solely on race pace simulation while still setting what was ultimately the quickest time of the day.
Which Ferrari driver is quicker at this point? If you count up the number of sub 1m37 laps, Raikkonen leads 11 to 6. I'm going with Kimi.
Kimi Raikkonen
|
Felipe Massa
|
These were the terminal laps of the two Ferrari drivers longest runs. Excellent pace
Red Bull Quick / Brawn Holding Back?
James Allen suggest that Brawn aren't dealing with their tyres quite as well this weekend. Neither Jenson or Rubens were capable of bringing the car down into the 1m35's nor did they do a stint anywhere near as long as the Ferrari program. Their lap times featured in the mid to high 36's. Their fastest recorded laps were during six and nine lap stints respectively. Button setting his fastest time at the end, Rubens getting his in with fresher rubber. I suspect they're holding back a bit of pace right now and should still be capable of winning on Sunday.
Red Bull had a mess of a Friday in Australia, no such problems this time around with both Vettel and Mark Webber driving quite quickly.
I mentioned that Raikkonen had 11 laps in which he got around the circuit in under 1m37. Red Bull had 22 between them. The fastest lap times were both set on 10+ lap stints and tyre degradation doesn't appear to be a problem for either driver. For now I'm putting them third because they don't have the advantage in the race that will be KERS, and Brawn probably have a tenth or two in reserve.
BMW / Toyota / Williams
These three teams are clearly behind Ferrari and co. BMW's low key Friday's are no surprise, Kubica's tyres worked very well throughout a 15 lap stint but none of those times registered sub 1m37. They're over a second a lap behind Ferrari and Nick is even further behind, the German struggled throughout the entire session, managing just a single lap time below 1m38.
Robert Kubica
|
Nick Heidfeld
|
Much BMW malaise in Malaysia.
Sandwiching Kubica is likely to be the Toyota's and Williams. Jarno and Timo's times ran in the lower 1m37, Rosberg was mid-high. The Williams still has a very quick car over a single lap, so they can leverage that pace into a higher grid position on Sunday.
McLaren's Woes Continue...
...or perhaps not? Kovalainen's longer runs were high 37's, which means they're just holding pace with the pack ahead but they will have KERS to assis them during the race. 6th or 7th looks possible in the dry and I'd never count out Lewis should a deluge occur sometime during the race. Behind McLaren are Renault, Alonso slower than Piquet and still struggling with an ear infection. They need rain or a safety car for points, no buts about it. Once again STR and Force India should bring up the rear.
- Ferrari
- Brawn
- Red Bull
- Toyota
- BMW
- Williams
- McLaren
- Renault
- STR
- Force India
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Round 2... Malaysian Grand Prix.
Posted Thursday, 2nd of April 2009, filed under Previews
The climate for this weekends Malaysian grand prix says there's an 80% chance of precipitation, but things are already grey for McLaren after the Melbourne stewards reconvened today and found the team negligent for 'deliberately misleading' them after the last weekends race.
The result is that Hamilton has been disqualified from the results of the race and Jarno Trulli's 25 second penalty rescinded, handing the Italian back his podium.
In the past such decisions have been the genesis of a stunning Lewis performance at the subsequent race, whether that is the case or not this time, it is unlikely the McLaren will bother the podium without a similar level of chaos we saw at Albert Park five days ago. 80% will be the one number keeping Lewis' spirits up this weekend I suspect.
All of that aside, the pecking order in Formula One will be once again be up for grabs, the only definite conclusion from last weeks race is that Brawn are at the top.
Since his unexpected maiden win in Hungary 2006, Jenson Button has been talked up as a wet weather performer and has not lived up to that reputation. In fact it was team mate Rubens Barrichello that took advantage of the conditions at a very wet Silverstone last season to give Honda a podium in what was otherwise a miserable season.
2007 Nurburgring
Button - Ret
Barrichello - 11th
2007 Japan
Button - 11th/Ret
Barrichello - 10th
2007 China
Button - 5th
Barrichello - 15th
2008 Monaco
Button - 11th
Barrichello - 6th
2008 Britain
Button - Ret
Barrichello - 3rd
2008 Italy
Button - 15th
Barrichello - 17th
2008 Brazil
Button - 13th
Barrichello - 15th
That's 4-3 Barrichello's way, Jenson hasn't made the most of wet race opportunities the last two seasons and Rubens has done pretty well in the wet in the past himself. Barrichello will want to get one back on his team mate here in Sepang, a wet race could be the perfect opportunity to get himself the championship lead heading into China.
Behind the Brawn cars the fight is between Red Bull, Williams, BMW and Toyota. The first of those three left Melbourne with unfulfilled expectations. In a wet race I like Red Bull's chances, Mark had a terrible weekend in Australia but has always been quick around Sepang. We all know how quick his team mate is in the wet.
Ferrari came here last season and dominated the race after an awful showing in Australia. It's hard to forsee a similar result for them this weekend, they have struggled in wet conditions the last few seasons and ironically their choice to test in Bahrain this winter cost them running time in the wet conditions. Should the race stay dry I suspect them to challenge for the podium and with KERS they could push Brawn GP to the limit. A question mark lurks over their reliability though, we'll have to wait and see.
Timetable
| Friday Practice 1 | 10:00 - 11:30 | +all times |
| Friday Practice 2 | 14:00 - 15:30 | +all times |
| Saturday Practice | 14:00 - 15:00 | +all times |
| Qualifying | 17:00 - 18:00 | +all times |
| Race | 17:00 | +all times |
Sepang Circuit Map
2008 Race Results
- K. Raikkonen - 1h31m18.555
- R. Kubica - +19.570
- H. Kovalainen - +38.450
2008 Qualifying Session
- F. Massa - 1:35.748
- K. Raikkonen - 1:36.230
- H. Kovalainen - 1.36.613
Here are my top 8 predictions if the race is dry
- J. Button
- R. Barrichello
- K. Raikkonen
- J. Trulli
- R. Kubica
- N. Rosberg
- S. Vettel
- M. Webber
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Melbourne Race Analysis - Prologue.
Posted Sunday, 29th of March 2009, filed under Analysis
You can access Melbourne race times through the Timing link in the menu.
Just a quick note to let you know that the lap times are now up for session 3 of practice and the race itself. And a quick thanks to everyone who has visited the site over the weekend.
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